Monday, September 28, 2009

Season Predictions - East

Well, the new season is upon us, and now it's time to make my predictions. So here they are, team by team - starting with the Eastern conference teams.

Atlanta Thrashers
Last season: Finished 13th in the East. Quite disappointing, but at this stage it's all par for the course for the lowly Thrashers.

Off season: Traded Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart in exchange for Pavel Kubina and Tim Stapleton, which should help on an undermanned blueline. Also signed free agent centre Nik Antropov.

This season: Addition of Leafs reject players aside, this is a largely unchanged team with a largely unchanged outlook. Could finish in a higher rank if goalie Lehtonen manages to stay healthy (he's already had a back surgery in the off-season) and Antropov catches fire. The re-sign or trade debate on Ilya Kovalchuk will be an ever increasing sideshow.

Boston Bruins
Last season: Dominated the North-East division and ended up clinching the East conference. Somewhat unlucky to be beaten in overtime of game 7 in 2nd round.

Off season: Signed Derek Morris to an already scary good back end, and turned unaffordable Phil Kessel into 2 (!!!) first round draft picks from the Leafs. Also managed to dump the salary of Aaron Ward to the Canes AND secure an extra 4th rounder.

This season: The loss of Kessel is not such a loss to a deep team like the Bruins. They will continue to be a defensive juggernaut, led by Chara and Tim Thomas. Should take the North-East division this year without much contest.

Buffalo Sabres
Last season: Lost their way when Ryan Miller got injured. Lalime, sadly, just doesn't cut it anymore. A disappointing finish out of the playoffs for a team that was close to a Stanley Cup in 2007 (sound familiar?)

Off season: Not a whole lot. They did sign Mike Grier and turf Maxim Afinogenov.

This season: Buffalo are rolling the dice with what they've got. Vanek, Pominville, Roy, Miller...the star power is there. However, losing Numminen and Spacek will hurt the D, which never really fully recovered from losing Brian Campbell. Will likely be in a battle for a late playoff spot.

Carolina Hurricanes
Last season: A late surge after the trade deadline acquisition of Erik Cole saw the Hurricanes scrape into the playoffs. They upset the Devils and Bruins for good measure once they got there.

Off season: A few minor moves here and there, they did re-sign Erik Cole and pick up Aaron Ward from the Bruins.

This season: With Cam Ward in form and Ward and Staal re-united, the Hurricanes should continue on current form. They will benefit from a tame South-East division. Should finish in the middle of the playoff pack.

Florida Panthers

Last season: Florida surprised people in the hockey world when they almost squeaked into the playoffs. Craig Anderson in particular impressed when he stole the starter's job from Tomas Voukoun. However, the Panthers certainly benefited from playing in a very weak division last year.

Off season: After losing Anderson to Colorado, Florida went with another backup who impressed last season in Scott Clemmensen. The big loss this off-season of course was Jay Bouwmeester, but the Panthers did well to get at least Jordan Leopold in a trade for his rights. They also secured Dennis Seidenberg as a free agent.

This season: Not a lot has changed in the Florida camp. They are still the same young group of players who are missing that certain something to take them over the edge. Plus now there's no Jay Bouwmeester. They figure to contend for that final playoff spot again this season.

Montreal Canadiens

Last season: The Habs were all hyped up for a centennial season that never really got off the ground. The team battled consistency issues all year. Carey Price was again shaky at times, and Alexei Kovalev was asked to stay home to "clear his head" for a few games when the team went on a road trip. The move worked and they did just scrape into the playoffs, only to be steamrolled by the Bruins.

Off season: Where do we start. Montreal have made so many changes to the squad this off season it's hard to know where to start. At forward, there is Cammaleri, Gionta, Gomez and Moen. On D, there's Spacek, Mara and Gill. And throw in Curtis Sanford for good measure in goal. Jacques Martin also becomes the new coach.

This season: It's hard to tell. This team is very different from the one that took the ice last year. There are going to be concerns about how the team plays together, and overall size is a problem (not one top 6 forward is more than 6 feet tall). The Habs are one of a number of fringe playoff teams this year.

New Jersey Devils
Last season: Despite losing Martin Brodeur for an extended period, the Devils easily won their division when Scott Clemmensen filled in admirably. Breakout seasons up front for Travis Zajac and Zach Parise certainly helped.

Off season: There wasn't a whole lot going on for NJ until they managed to sign free agent Rob Neidermeyer a few days ago. They also picked up Yann Danis from the Islanders to replace Scott Clemmensen and Kevin Weekes. The only notable loss was John Madden, who now plays for the Hawks. Why change a winning formula?

This season: With Brodeur back and the rest of the team intact, look for more of the same. The only concern should be that if Brodeur is injured again, the Devils have a long drop in talent to Yann Danis. Otherwise, he should be more than capable of playing the 5-10 games that Brodeur has a rest in.

New York Islanders
Last season: An abysmal year for a bit-part team. Rick DiPietro was injured AGAIN and played just 5 games. In fact, injury was the key word - the Islanders lost more than 550 man-games to injury, more than any other team in the NHL. Mark Streit shone, scoring a team high 56 points and going +5.

Off season: The buzz is all about young draftee John Tavares. He set and broke many OHL records in his junior career, and now it's pro time. The Islanders also locked up the goalcrease, signing both Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron.

This season: The problems on the island are too many to overcome in one season, however, the team is headed in the right direction. Roloson and Biron are more than capable of sharing a season should DiPietro stay injured. The D in particular needs to stay healthier. It's also time for Okposo and Bailey to step it up. Could surprise a few teams this season, but probably not yet playoff material.

New York Rangers
Last season: The Rangers struggled at times but eventually came home strong enough to make the playoffs. They also scared Washington in the first round, going 7 games.

Off season: The Rangers capitalised in trades this year - sending away the grossly inflated salary of Scott Gomez and bringing in Chris Higgins from the Habs. Then New York signed gifted goal-scorer Marian Gaborik. For good measure, they also secured Ales Kotalik and Vaclav Prospal for secondary scoring and Donald Brashear to be the enforcer.

This season: What was already a decent team has filled out with some really good acquisitions. The Rangers are obviously on a mission this season. There is always concern for Gaborik's health and Kotalik's consistency, but overall this team definitely looks better on paper than it did 12 months ago. Should make the playoffs.

Ottawa Senators
Last season: The Senators experienced a meltdown. The top line didn't produce, the goaltending faltered (big time), and the team missed the playoffs for the first time in 12 seasonHowever, new coach Cory Clouston did manager to get a better all-round effort from his team, going 19-11-4 to end the season.

Off season: New #1 goalie Pascal Leclaire was obtained at the trade deadline. However, most of the off season was spent trying to get rid of Dany Heatley, who shocked Senators management and fans alike when he demanded a trade, then refused to go to Edmonton when a deal was reached. However, they did manage to add Alexei Kovalev from the Habs, and eventually landed Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo from the Sharks in exchange for Heatley.

This season: The Sens face an uphill battle. It remains to be seen if Kovalev will find chemistry with the existing forward group. Everyone on this team underperformed last year, but if the effort is consistent under new coach Clouston and Leclaire stays healthy, the Senators should scrape into the bottom half of the playoff race.

Philadelphia Flyers

Last season: A Flyer of a year for Jeff Carter and Mike Richards meant that the team did not really miss the absence of Daniel Briere and easily made the playoffs. Undisciplined play prevented them from capitalising, however, against the Pens in the first round.

Off season: In an effort to get even tougher, Chris Pronger was acquired from the Ducks, and Ian Laperriere from the Avalanche. In goal, Philly turfed both goalies and decided to go with Russian exile Ray Emery, formerly of the Senators, and Brian Boucher who played last season with the Sharks.

This season: The Flyers have a scary-good looking team on paper, however, there are a few question marks. A team with this much sandpaper is going to take lots of penalties, can Richards and Co. manage the workload? They did a great job last season. The bigger concern is in goal. Will Emery and Boucher be a good enough tandem? The key is offense for the Flyers. Score, score, score, and the goalies will only have to be decent and not spectacular. They have the firepower and should challenge for the division title.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Last season: The eventual Stanley Cup champs did not enjoy an easy ride. In fact, until AHL coach Dan Bylsma came in, the Pens were 5 points out of the playoff race. The team produced under his run, secured veteran leader Bill Guerin and ran all the way to the top.

Off season: There wasn't too much that needed changing, but the Pens did add Jay McKee (Blues), Mike Rupp (Devils), and toughman Wade Brookbank (Hurricanes). Brent Johnson from Washington was also added as insurance for Fleury in goal.

This season: The Stanley Cup hangover shouldn't be too much of a problem for a team that boasts so much front-end talent and star goaltending. An early injury to Sidney Crosby is worrysome but it doesn't look serious at this stage. The Pens should make the playoffs again this year.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Last season: After all the hype and boasting last year from the new Lightning owners, not a whole lot went right. An early injury to Olaf Kolzig brought out the backup tenders for the rest of the season. Then there was the constant chatter that the Bolts would sell Vinny Lecavalier to the highest bidder. The coach was canned but that didn't do much for respectability.

Off season: The Lightning struck early and often in free agency, particularly on the blueline, managing to secure Mattias Ohlund, Kurtis Foster and Matt Walker. After signing Philly backup Niittymaki to a cheap-as-chips contract, the big splash came late, locking up Alex Tanguay to play on a French superstar line of Tanguay-Lecavalier-St Loius.

This season: As much as you want to believe that Tampa are going to take a serious run this year, these are all the same rumblings we heard last year. The proof will be in the pudding. There is a lack of forward depth after that first line. Also of concern is that the Bolts still don't have a #1 goalie. It will be a struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Last season: Not much was expected of the Leafs last year with a bit-part roster. But they played solidly, scoring much more than other teams expected and playing fast and furious. The goaltending let them down however, Vesa Toskala looked as if he was going to join the goalie graveyard and Martin Gerber received his last rites after being waived from the Senators.

Off season: For all his bluster and talk, Brian Burke failed to achieve his two big targets at the draft, Tavares and Luke's younger brother Brayden Schenn. But the one thing the Leafs did get was tougher. Colton Orr, Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin were all signed. In goal, they secured the services of Jonas Gustavsson, who has already impressed in the off-season. But the big move was saved for acquiring Bruins sniper Phil Kessel for 5 years.

This season: The Leafs had no problem with tempo and overall effort, they just needed that extra bit of skill. How Kessel plays once he is healthy will determine a lot. Also, Toskala as a starting goaltender is on shaky ground with the young Monster breathing down his neck. Overall, the Leafs are just 1 or 2 exceptional performances away from qualifying for the playoffs.

Washington Capitals
Last season: Ovechkin. Backstrom. Semin. Green. So many scoring talents on one team. And the Caps capitalised. However, Jose Theodore looked very shaky in goal and the team's defense was not crash hot.

Off season: The Caps top line just got that much scarier, with the addition of long-time Flyer Mike Knuble. Also signed were veteran forward Brendan Morrison, and journeyman AHL starter Jason Bacashihua.

This season: There's going to be no shortage of attack from this team, but the defensive struggles will continue. Theodore in net is no sure thing, and the Caps will be heavily relying on young goalie prospect Simeon Varlamov to help shoulder the load. Playing in an otherwise weak division suits the Caps just fine and they will have little problem cracking the playoff rankings this year.

2 comments:

  1. Great entry. I almost agree with all your evaluations except I really disagree with the Thrashers being as bad as you make them sound. They have added some key pieces, and they may have not done well on the Leafs, they will surely be better with Kovalchuk. They won't be battling for a playoff spot yet but they won't be last place either. Also I think the Lightning will surely be making the playoffs or at least be a series threat to many teams, people seem to forget the insane chemistry Stamkos and St Louis sparked at the end of the last season, so it'll be exciting to see what they can do with a whole season of Stamkos being "on"

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  2. Great reading Matt! I like your assessments, but agree with S19 when it comes to the Thrashers. The offense isn't limited to Kovalchuk and hoping on Antropov - Little, Kozlov, Afinogenov, White, Armstrong, and Peverley can all produce. Kubina, Hainsey, and Enstrom can all man the back end well, and that's not to mention what Zach Bogosian and Nathan Oystrick could bring. They also have some amazing rookie potential when you consider Kane, Esposito, Sterling, Bubnick, Morin, Machacek, Klingberg, Holzapfel, O’Dell, and Pasquale.

    The only other team I'd take issue with is how well you rate the Devils. John Madden was not the only notable loss - Gionta and Holik will both be badly missed.

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