Friday, August 21, 2009

The Ottawa Roster (part 3 of 3)

The final part of this blog looks at the Ottawa trading block

Trading block forwards: Dany Heatley

Now, this one is obvious given what has transpired over the summer. But I am even more alarmed and concerned by what I have heard today in his press conference. He REALLY doesn't want to play here. His attitude today stank richly of a sense of entitlement and a definite sense of looking out for #1.

His trade stock probably plummeted with the performance he put on today, but there is no reason the Sens shouldn't get something serviceable back. The Edmonton offer of Penner, Cogliano and Smid should be used as a template - GM Murray wants a top 6 forward, a top 4 defenseman and a prospect/pick. This seems about right. If Edmonton offered that deal again and included, say, Tom Gilbert instead of recently re-signed Smid, or perhaps Paajarvi-Svensson (or similar prospect) - the deal would be back on.

The sleeper team in this I feel is Tampa Bay. Now, I'm not claiming to be an Eklund or Senschirp here, I don't have any sources, I'm simply using commonsense. Ryan Malone is good, but he is overpaid. The Lightning need to shake things up. They have upgraded their D a lot but haven't really done anything on the front end yet. Say the package looked like Heatley for Malone, someone like Paul Ranger and a high draft pick or prospect? I think that trade actually works for both teams...but, we all know that's no guarantee that they'll want it.

Imagine a line of Heatley-Lecavalier-St Louis...pretty scary talented huh.

Outrageous, baseless rumours aside (maybe I am pulling an Eklund here come to think of it :P), let's look at the rest of the trade block:

Trading block defensemen: Christoph Schubert, Alexandre Picard, Jason Smith

Poor Schubie just can't catch a break here in Ottawa, constantly on the outer fringe of making the team on both the 4th line and the bottom-pairing D. He's copped a lot of criticism for being particularly useless up front - but as with all our bottom 6 forwards, that's not really the role a Schubert is designed to play.

If Schubie gets a shot here it will serve him well to remember his fundamentals. Forecheck with hustle. Hit players. Be more assertive. He's listed at 230lbs and he looks even bigger than that - time for him to throw some of that size around. I kinda hope he impresses enough to be kept around...but if he is traded, I can see a 4th to 6th round draft pick for him

Picard is another defenseman who has just had no luck this season. When Hartsburg finally got the boot, Picard got injured and found that his spot had been taken up by Lee and Bell. With Bell gone and Lee needing to be mentored, perhaps Picard could be swapped for a veteran defenseman presence on the blue line.

Let's face it, Jason Smith was a failed Ottawa experiment. In the final year of his contract and with a desperate need to lose salary off the books - he is almost certain to stay this season on the long-term IR. However, if a team wants him packaged into a deal I don't think BM would hesitate.

Seeing as we don't have any goaltender depth in the system, I think that wraps this post up.

Just a quick word of thanks to all you people out there reading my blog and encouraging me to keep going - the support is greatly appreciated. :)

Thursday, August 20, 2009

The Ottawa Roster (part 2 of 3)

Last night, I gave a play by play of what I expected the forward lines to look like as of right NOW in the Senators lineup. Tonight, I look at the rest of the team, starting with the D

Defense pairing 1: Phillips-Volchenkov

One of the better shutdown pairings in this league. The A-Train blocks lots of shots and hits, well, like a train...and Phillips has a better first pass and can help on attack at times.

A lot of fans are dismayed that this is our first pairing and want a star defenseman with some offensive talent on the first unit. I disagree. The defense is there to play just that - defense. If you get some goals out of them it's a bonus, sure, but the Senators have plenty of young prospects on D who can run a PP and make good passes. You better believe there are teams who wish they had either one of these players in their rosters (Volchenkov especially).

Defense pairing 2: Kuba-Campoli

This is a very potent and mobile pairing. Kuba passes well and can be relied upon in his own end moreso than Campoli. But Campoli can run a PP and also has a more than adequate shot that's only going to get better with age (he's only 25).

Obviously Bryan Murray likes both players a lot - he signed Kuba to an extension last year and traded away a 1st rounder for Campoli. And for me, these were both great moves. Ottawa on the PP this year are going to be very dangerous - in no small part because of these two players on the blue line.

Defense pairing 3: Lee-Picard

The depth pairing. I am going to be brutally honest here...Brian Lee looked, at times, absolutely atrocious out there last season (especially playing with Bell). But I can honestly say I have seen an improvement with each game that went by. His problem seems to be that he doesn't know what sort of defender he should be at times - the puck moving D or the stay at home D. So he plays a game that's kinda halfway between without being good at either one. Methinks he will have to battle hard to impress at camp or risk being sent down to Bingo once more.

I didn't really see much of Picard, but he has potential and hopefully he can get a decent shot on the 3rd pairing this year. There will be other prospects breathing down his neck for sure.

Goalies: Leclaire-Elliott

Ever since Pascal Leclaire was traded to Ottawa on deadline day in March, the buzz and anticipation has been constant. Last season he spent mostly on the injured list, but the season before he had 9 shutouts (in just 54 starts!!!) and posted solid numbers.

He is easily the closest thing to a #1 goaltender that the Senators have had for a while...but will the pressure get to him? And can he produce similar numbers playing behind a system that is much less defense-orientated than what he was used to in Columbus???

We saw a lot more of Brian Elliott than we expected to last year because of the Gerber meltdown. And he definitely has promise. But there are areas of his game that need work. He MUST get a better handle on his rebounds and he also needs work on being screened. If Leclaire can stay healthy and play 60-65 games then Elliott is more than capable of doing the rest.

Part 3 (hopefully coming tomorrow) will look at the trading block and what sort of returns we could expect for certain players...

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The Ottawa Roster (part 1 of 3)

So we all know that Dany Heatley has not been moved.

Senators GM Bryan Murray has come out and said that he will now proceed and plan for the coming season with Heatley in the line up. And what I aim to do with this post is look at what the team should look like (IMO) with Heatley staying. Bear in mind this is the CURRENT roster - minus any crazy trades or salary dumps and all that jazz. We'll start with the first line.

Line 1: Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson

Heatley pots the goals, Spezza sets them up and Alfie works his butt off all over the ice. It's a tried and tested formula and there's no reason to tinker with it.

Now some of you may be upset that Heatley gets to stay on the first line...well, he just HAS to rebound form-wise this year. The Olympic squad is at stake and if he is serious about being traded, he will want to impress the pro scouts and GMs from around the league. And have no doubt that Clouston will demote him if he doesn't show up to play.

Line 2: Foligno-Fisher-Kovalev

Nick Foligno is in a contract year and really needs to show management if he wants to be a top 6 or bottom 6 forward. He is definitely a hard worker, but can he put up the points? The key will be how he clicks with Alex Kovalev - and I like the possibilities here.

Fisher down the middle has the size and grit on this line and can go to the net. Kovalev certainly possesses amazing puck control and scoring capability when on his game. Foligno's tenacity on the forecheck really rounds out a solid line.

Line 3: Ruutu-Kelly-Shannon

Chris Kelly is probably the most underrated Senator in the squad - he has decent size and plays a solid defensive game. He won't wow you with amazing goals or crazy dekes, but that's not his role on the team. Shannon certainly showed he can work hard and if he can improve on his 20 points from last season, he's on the right track. And don't let Ruutu's gob fool you - that's not the only skill he has. There were flashes of brilliance last season (a certain backhanded goal comes to mind) and at his pricetag hopefully we can expect more.

Line 4: Neil-Winchester-Donovan

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy work as hard on the ice as Shean Donovan. He is devoid of almost all finishing skills, but he just never stops! Neil was somewhat of a disappointment last year but no one can fault his heart and his determination. He's also one player on the team willing to shoulder the physical load. And Winchester locked down the 4th line centre job last year with a high faceoff percentage (when you're second on the team only to Antoine Vermette, you're doing pretty well) and tight defensive play.

Spare player: Schubert

Schubie has again drawn the short straw as swingman. He really has some potential but I don't know if he's going to get a fair shot on this team. Hopefully he gets a few games under his belt this year - if for nothing else then to improve his trade value.

Part 2 is coming up soon - I'll be looking at the defense and goalies.

Monday, August 10, 2009

The Heatley Enigma

Well, as we all know, Dany Heatley is the one issue this summer that refuses to go away.

After an average season (if you can call 39 goals an average season) and missing the playoffs, Heatley shocked the NHL universe by requesting a trade out of the Ottawa Senators in early June. No word on why except some rumblings on not liking the coach or his minutes. He has been repeatedly asked why he is making this move and there has been no official word. None whatsoever.

And that of course leaves all of us to speculate on what he's thinking. And speculate wildly we have! The rumours include:

- He wants out because his girlfriend wants to move to California
- He wants out because of rampant drug use within the Senators organisation
- He wants out because he's been outed as having an affair with Chris Phillips' wife

Now, admittedly, I was interested in the reason why he would choose to give up on the organisation that took him in at his very difficult time when he came from Atlanta. The organisation that gave up Hossa to facilitate him. The organisation that basically bent over backwards to make sure he was looked after.

I WAS interested. 2 months ago when this all started I was interested. Now, I really could not care less. Let's just move him on out of here already, shall we?

My attention now turns to what we can turn Heatley into. I am going to briefly run through a few of the rumoured options and what they bring to the table...

Edmonton - we all know that they were the first and most enthusiastic team onto the bandwagon. The trade for Penner-Cogliano-Smid was solid if not breath-taking, but Heatley snubbed it. However, after much runaround, Edmonton appears to have dropped out of the running.

Don't be surprised if they are sneakily still keeping their eyes opened and waiting for someone to get desperate here...I wouldn't be disappointed if we got Cogliano in a revamped package, however his size is a concern.

San Jose - the new kids on the block. Personally, I don't see the upside of adding a player like Heatley with his character issues into a team that, quite frankly, has character issues. Nonetheless, the Sharks have been active and trying to push this trade through.

They have a number of young prospects to offer, the most attractive of which I would rate Devin Setoguchi...but the sticking point here is Jonathan Cheechoo. The Sharks don't want him (and can't afford him if Heatley comes to town) and neither do the Senators. Marleau's salary was also rumoured to be on the way out to make room but I just don't see that happening with his NTC.

NY Rangers - well, well, well - what a surprise this is. The Rangers are well known around this league as being the sort of team that loves to sign the superstars, no matter the cost. However, in their case, I just don't see who we would get back. Gaborik? They just signed him and I can't see them doing that. Plus the guy's made of glass. Last year I would have said Lundqvist but now that we have Leclaire...I don't see that happening either.

Buffalo - this one intrigues me somewhat because there are a few young players here that could be worth it...Derek Roy or Tim Connolly would fill our need for a 2nd line player. But Murray's not going to take a trade within the division lightly so the package would need to be spectacular. And Buffalo aren't known for spectacular.

Tampa Bay - there are a number of players that they could package that would be of interest to the Sens, and they have some cap room. Ryan Malone would be the key in a trade - Murray has already shown his hand in his willingness to take Penner that he would like to get bigger. And Malone is a lot more effective than Penner. Throw in Ranger on D and a 1st round pick and they could go somewhere with this. Imagine a line of Heatley-Lecavalier-St Louis. Truly scary!

Florida - any deal here would revolve around Nathan Horton, who seems to be wasting away down in the tropics but could be re-energised on a new team. Florida makes sense - last year they were as close to the playoffs as you can get without actually making the playoffs. Heatley is good for at least 40 goals and that is HUGE to a team that is starting to stagnate and risks financial problems if they cannot put a winning team on the ice.

All in all - lots of question marks and not a whole lot in the way of answers...here's hoping that this saga is ended and soon!

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

The Goalie Dilemma

Seems these days your team only goes so far as your goalie will hold you up...

For example, look at New Jersey in the playoffs this year vs Carolina. Now, people were talking NJ up BIG time coming in - and they were right in doing so. During a regular season in which Martin Brodeur missed half the games injured they finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference, winning the extremely competitive Atlantic division. Hopes were high.

And then Brodeur decided he needed a few minutes off at the end of some crucial games...and the rest is history.

The NHL has teams with similar stories this season:
- Edmonton faltered at the final hurdle of the regular season because they relied on just 1 goalie, the ageing Dwayne Roloson.
- In Columbus, Steve Mason almost singlehandedly carried his team into the playoffs for the first time in that franchise's history.
- Detroit struggled all season with consistency and a Chris Osgood who for some reason only really showed up once the playoffs began.
- Anaheim goalie JS Giguere found himself and his $5M per season benched this playoff run because of previously unheralded Jonas Hiller.

And in Ottawa, Martin Gerber (again) failed to live up to expectations and the pipes were left in the care of Alex Auld and Brian Elliott.

Elliott, just 24 years of age and fresh out of the AHL (well, ok, he'd played 1 NHL game before this season...) was somewhat of a revelation to the Senators organisation, posting solid numbers and improving each game. However, his rebound control is cause for concern. Alex Auld, too, was a very solid backup but tended to run in hot and cold stretches; amazing for 5-6 games and mediocre for 5-6 more. Later in the season, GM Brian Murray turned Antoine Vermette into highly touted youngster Pascal Leclaire (and a 2nd round draft pick used on Robin Lehner). Things were starting to look up in Ottawa.

And then...Ottawa traded Alex Auld and his very reasonable 1 year, $1M contract away to Dallas - for a 6th round draft pick. That was a BAD move.

Alex Auld is 28. In goalie terms that is a youngster. He makes the right amount of money for his ability. He was only signed for 1 more year. I consider him to be one of the best #2 goalies in the league right now. And the Sens trade him for a 6th BEFORE the season even starts??? They could have signed him for similar money next season, or they could have traded him at the deadline...but this move is almost zero benefit to the team.

Pascal Leclaire has not played for the better part of a season. There is already a lot of pressure on him to perform here in Ottawa and prove that playing behind Columbus D is not the only reason for his stats.

Brian Elliott has started a grand total of 32 NHL games, and certainly has issues with his consistency and especially rebound control. Forgive me for being pessimistic but that is not who I want to be the default starter should Leclaire falter, or need more time to heal (or, heaven forbid, re-injure himself). Don't get me wrong, I am happy we signed him to a very reasonable contract ($850K for 2 years), and he shows promise...but I just don't see him being ready to take over as a starter at this very early stage of his career.

Now, I'm struggling to leave Heatley out of this blog (I'm really trying here! :P) but you gotta wonder if his trade demands have forced Murray's hand here. What I do know for sure, is that a lot of Ottawa's success this season depends on the performances it gets from its goaltenders. And no matter how you slice it - that is still one of this team's biggest question marks until proven otherwise.

Introduction

Well hello all...

Most of you know me as Matt the Aussie - I have decided to start up a blog and hopefully get a discussion going amongst people...most of my topics will be to do with the Sens but I will throw in the occasional random post. Please let me know what you think of what I write (aka PLEASE COMMENT!!! :P) and hopefully this won't turn out to be a disaster! lol...

First actual blog is coming up soon.